Teams play 16 games in a season, so the difference between a team that is very likely to be profitable and one that is very likely not to be is just over one turnover per game. The difference between those two levels is 18 turnovers.
![nfl turnover leaders nfl turnover leaders](https://www.spox.com/de/sport/ussport/nfl/1808/Bilder/cardinals-600.jpg)
For example, look at the two extremes we talked about earlier – +9 and -9.
![nfl turnover leaders nfl turnover leaders](https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/841/623/26_7623841.jpg)
The difference between a good turnover football team and a bad one isn’t always that much, either. It takes several games before we can tell if a team is going to be a good turnover team or a bad one. The much tougher part is finding a way as a sports bettor to turn that knowledge into profits. The easy part is spotting a strong relationship like that. Simply put, a football team that protects the ball very well is very likely to be a profitable bet, and one that is sloppy with the ball is likely to be unprofitable. The evidence is obvious – there is a very strong relationship between turnover differential and performance against the spread. They burned the money of the people who backed them. 31 of the 46 teams covered 43 percent of their games or less. Just four of those 46 teams were profitable on the season against the spread. On the other hand, there were 46 teams over the same stretch that had a season-long turnover differential of -9 or worse. For NFL handicappers that’s the realm of serious profitability. 28 of the 49 – covered 60 percent of their games or more. 500 ATS, so they weren’t far from profitability. Each of those six teams finished the season at. Just six of those teams were not profitable on the season if you had bet them to cover the spread in every game. Between 20 there were 49 football teams that had a turnover differential over the course of a full NFL season that was +9 or better. However, If it is used incorrectly by the sports bettor it can lead to disaster.įirst, the powerful part.
![nfl turnover leaders nfl turnover leaders](https://www.lineups.com/fantasy-football/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Week12DEFRankings-380x211.jpg)
The NFL turnover differential – the difference between the number of times a team turns the ball over, and the number of times they recover a turnover from their opponents – is a very powerful statistic for football handicappers.